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November 2007

November 27, 2007

November 27th

No. This doesn't necessarily have anything to do with global health or politics. Or does it?

Dear readers,

First. Take a deep breath.

And now, let us all take pause, and give thanks

For if they were both still alive

Jimi Hendrix would have been 65 today.

And Bruce Lee would have been 67.

Which I guess means that they both would be retired.

And in 1967 they would have been 25 and 27, respectively.


So if you're in Seattle you might want to take a moment at the Jimi Hendrix memorial. Hendrix_jimi_07


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Or if you're in Hong Kong you might check out the recently unveiled new bronze statue of the late, famous Kung-fu and film star.

But if you're like me and you won't be in either of those places, I suggest that you watch the following two videos - playing them together at the same time - and then take a solemn walk in a snowy wood and find a quiet place place to sit by a slowly passing river, and then try to imagine, to the extent that you are able, what kind of human being could possibly embody the combined spiritual intensity of both these great men.

And then pray.

And Hope.

As passionately, and intensely as you can.

'cause I need all the help I can get.



FURTHERMORE:

Sagittarius horoscope for the week of November 22-27, 2007:

SAGITTARIUS Nov 22 | Dec 21 The visionary genius Isaac Newton revolutionized science and math. His biographer James Gleick says he discovered "more of the essential core of human knowledge than anyone before or after." Ostensibly, Newton was humble, writing that "if I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of giants." But he did not actually believe that, writes Salon.com's Farhad Manjoo in his review of Gleick's book. And the fact is that Newton's breakthroughs "were not incremental, not the logical conclusion to centuries of study," but rather the result of "a supernatural, superhuman intuition." This is the kind of intelligence I suspect you'll be able to summon in the coming weeks as you expand your understanding of your place in the world. It will be as if you're snatching raw truths fresh from eternity; as if you're the beneficiary of utterly novel insights that nothing in your life has prepared you for.

Wolf.

Raven.

November 23, 2007

Hans Rosling Lectures

"The seemingly impossible is possible.".

Try keeping up with this guy:

Professor of International Health at the Karolinska Institutet of Stockholm, renowned 'statistics guru', and sword-swallower (?!) Hans Rosling - in these two speeches from the 2006 and 2007 TED Conferences respectively.

With his fury of statistical analysis, his peculiar rapid fire Power Point presentation style and his penchant for the odd self-deprecating Swedish joke - Rosling, it seems to me, basically statistically demonstrates the logic behind the consensual idea of the Millennium Development Goals i.e. how the combination of family planning/birth control/rights for women combined with public investment in a social services infrastructure like health and education and roads combined with the possibility of microcredit all leading the way to a market really can begin to end global poverty as we know it. Or as he says - "It seems to me that you can move much faster if you are healthy first, as opposed to wealthy first.". But along the way, however, he really challenges our preconceptions of what constitutes a 'developing nation' versus an 'industrialized nation' and how these distinctions are becoming more and more meaningless, in addition to really making the case for the public availability of statistics and how the differences within nations are often more important than the differences between nations.

Though Rosling does argue that 'everything is necessary for development' - human rights, gender equity, government,etc. - he does state that the most important thing is economic growth. But (as you see in his 2007 lecture), he points out that no country has yet increased its collective wealth and thus its collective health without greatly increasing its carbon emissions as well. 'Something we have to work on', he says.


2006:

2007:



FURTHERMORE:

Hans Rosling's blog.

NationMaster.com - a site dedicating to comparing statistics among nations.

Gapminder.

November 22, 2007

Appending AIDS statistics

UNAIDS in its annual report for 2007 is 'appending' its global AIDS statistics.


From the NYT:

The agency, Unaids, will lower the number of people it believes are infected worldwide, to 33.2 million from the 39.5 million it estimated late last year.

The statistical changes reflect more accurate surveys, particularly in India and some populous African countries. Some epidemiologists have criticized for years the way estimates were made, and new surveys of thousands of households in several countries have borne them out.

In July, India’s estimated caseload was revised downward, to 2.5 million, from 5.7 million — a change that accounts for about half the drop in the new Unaids figures. Officials said then that India’s epidemic was not “generalized” — that is, it had not spread far from the original high-risk groups like brothel workers and clients, truckers, heroin users and gay men. Also, rates among prostitutes appeared to have fallen as condoms gained acceptance. Instead of being considered the world’s worst-hit country, India fell to third place behind South Africa and Nigeria.
Despite the revised estimates, the epidemic remains one of the great scourges of mankind. This week’s analysis predicts that 2.1 million people died of AIDS in the last year, and 2.5 million were newly infected — or about 6,800 every day.

Here's the UNAIDS press release: Download 071119_epi_pressrelease_en.pdf - which has this to say about the revisions:

"UNAIDS and WHO and the Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections have recently undertaken the most comprehensive review of their methodologies and monitoring systems since 2001. The epidemic estimates presented in this year's report reflect improvements in country date collection and analysis, as well as better understanding of the natural history and distribution of HIV infection. This informations is vital in helping countries understand their epidemics ad respond to them more effectively.".

November 20, 2007

Cyclone Sidr

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The official number of dead from Cyclone Sidr which ripped though Bangladesh on Thursday has now exceeded 3100, with the Government and United Nations predicting that that number could rise to as high as ten thousand when all of the harder to reach areas are finally attend to. Over a million people are homeless.

The Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee (BRAC) is one of the most effective Non-Governmental Organizations in the world. And with over 97 000 employees it is the largest NGO in the world. Born out of the Bangladesh Liberation War this homegrown organization has been attending to and researching the country's emergency aid and development needs since its founding.

One can donate to their Cyclone relief efforts - here.

And they have even started their own blog documenting those relief efforts.

Their vision :

With a vision of "a just, enlightened, healthy and democratic Bangladesh free from hunger, poverty, environmental degradation and all forms of exploitation based on age, sex, religion and ethnicity," BRAC started as an almost entirely donor funded, small-scale relief and rehabilitation projet to help the country overcome the devastation and trauma of the Liberation War. Today, BRAC has emerged as an independent, virtually self-financed paradigm in sustainable human development. It is the largest in the world employing 97,192 people, with the twin objectives of poverty alleviation and empowerment of the poor. Through experiential learning, BRAC today provides and protects livelihoods of around 100 million people in Bangladesh. Diagnosing poverty in human terms and recognising its multidimensional nature, BRAC approaches poverty alleviation with a holistic approach. BRAC's outreach covers all 64 districts of the country and furthermore, has been called upon to assist a number of countries including Afghanistan and Sri Lanka.

From the time of its modest inception in 1972, BRAC recognised women as the primary caregivers who would ensure the education of their children and the subsequent inter-generational sustainability of their families and households. Its comprehensive approach combines Microfinance under BRAC's Economic Development programme with Health, Education and other Social Development programmes, linking all the programmes strategically to counter poverty through livelihood generation and protection.

November 16, 2007

Cruise Missiles into Tehran? (1a) - follow up

In doing some research for - and as a follow up to - this post from last month, I subsequently discovered this very detailed Wikipedia entry about The January 20, 2007 attack in Karbala, Iraq that killed five U.S. soldiers and injured three which in turn then apparently became a large justification for the Kyl-Liebermann Amendment.

I have been meaning to blog about this for some time, and certainly in the light of recent events, and I will admit that I find this event fascinating not only because I don't recall ever hearing about it at the time (which, granted, says more about me than anything else, I was preoccupied) but more with regards to what it represents concerning this low level , almost clandestine conflict which has been on going between the U.S. and Iran inside Iraq that is so difficult to decipher and goes largely unreported.

The entry describes "The Raid" as follows:

The attack was perpetrated by "nine to 12 militants posing as an American security team ... [who] traveled in black GMC Suburban vehicles — the type used by U.S. government convoys — had American weapons, wore new U.S. military combat fatigues, and spoke English."[4] According to one Iraqi official, the militant team was led by a blond haired man. The attack occurred as the U.S. military convened a meeting to discuss security for Ashura. About a dozen U.S. troops were inside the compound at the time.[1]

After being waved through the last of three checkpoints manned by Iraqi security forces at around 17:45, the militants parked their (at least) five SUVs[5] near the city's Provisional Joint Coordination Center (PJCC) main building.[1] The attackers' convoy divided upon arrival, with some vehicles parking at the back of the main building where the meeting was taking place and others parking in front. The commandos first used flash grenades to confuse the Americans. They then stormed into a room where Americans and Iraqis were making the security plans, capturing two U.S. soldiers.[6] They pulled two more soldiers out of an armored Humvee at the entrance. One soldier died and three were wounded when a grenade thrown by insurgents exploded in the local police chief's office on an upper floor of the building. Three U.S. Humvees were damaged by separate explosions in the raid.[5] No Iraqi police or soldiers were injured in the raid, as the insurgents specifically targeted the American soldiers in the compound.[6]

At approximately 18:00, the insurgents broke off the attack and left the compound with their prisoners, heading east toward neighbouring Babil province. Shortly after crossing the Euphrates River, the militants, who were then being followed by Iraqi police, shot their four captives and abandoned five vehicles along with uniforms, equipment, and a rifle.[5] The four soldiers were found later by Iraqi police with gunshot wounds to their heads near Bu-Alwan, a village close to Mahawil. Three were already dead (two handcuffed together in the back of one of the SUVs and the other on the ground) and the fourth died while being evacuated to a nearby hospital.[4]

Stunning, I think, would be one word for this incident; certainly exceptional, to say the least. It was apparently called by at least one journalist as the "boldest, most sophisticated attack in four years of warfare". And thus given this 'sophistication' its not surprising that the attack seized the attention of the American military and American policy makers, since it obviously exposed a profound vulnerability among American forces in Iraq. After all, even in the face of all the staggering chaos and violence presently taking place in that arena, here is an attack where the insurgents apparently dressed as Americans to such a believable extent (right down to the "blonde hair") that they managed to completely fool the initial security of this compound and get themselves inside before beginning their actual attack. Proceeding then to kidnapping the soldiers themselves, who they later apparently executed.

I just don't recall it ever gain much traction in the mainstream media. I would have thought it was a huge story. It is a huge story. It might still be the justification for the U.S. extending the war into Iran.

But in the very least, I would speculate that this kind of thing must be the worst nightmare of both the American forces and military leadership in Iraq, ( you know, already quite a nightmare unto itself) not to mention the American public at large, so I suppose its not all that surprising that they all reacted the way that they did - i.e. - calling out the Iranian Quds Force and Revolutionary Guards as 'attacking U.S forces in Iraq' if only as way to be seen as 'taking action' and coming back at them, (though an attack on Iran as a matter of policy and/or strategy in response to this, however, would be something else entirely - which I maintain would be completely stupid and self-defeating). And I will concede that it does on the face of it appear to be in its nature, planning and execution to be an attack that would go far beyond the usual kind of thing that we are used to hearing about in Iraq, and thus it wouldn't be surprising if there was truth to the claim of Hezbollah (who apparently seem to be able to skillfully kidnap Israeli soldiers) and Iranian involvement.

This Wikipedia entry also gives a name and some history to - Ali Moussa Dakdouk - who existed only as an 'unnamed Lebanese Hezbollah commander' in my last post.

And there is the suggestion, made in this post and elsewhere, that the attack came in response to previous 'U.S. raids on Iranian diplomatic missions in both Arbil and Bagdhad.

Journalist Bill Roggio explains:


This raid required specific intelligence, in depth training for the agents to pass as American troops, resources to provide for weapons, vehicles, uniforms, identification, radios and other items needed to successfully carry out the mission. Hezbollah’s Imad Mugniyah executed a similar attack against Israeli forces on the Lebanese border, which initiated the Hezbollah-Israeli war during the summer of 2006…

Mahawil (where abandoned vehicles & the victim’s bodies were found) is in Babil province, about 27 miles directly east of Karbala. While it is impossible to prove, the attackers may have been making a bee-line towards the Iranian border.

The Karbala raid makes sense in light of the U.S. raids on the Iranian diplomatic missions in Baghdad and Irbil, where Iranian Qods Force agents were captured, along with documentation that divulged Iran’s involvement with and support of Shia death squads, the Sunni insurgent, and al-Qaeda in Iraq and Ansar al-Sunnah. Five Iranians from the Irbil raid are still in U.S. custody, and captured U.S. soldiers would provide for excellent bargaining chips.

IF (sic) it is confirmed that Iran’s Qods Force was responsible, the news that the United States has authorized the death or captured (sic) of Iranian agents inside Iraq, as well as in Afghanistan and Lebanon makes all the more sense.


In any event, as of a week ago, two of the Iranians who were either 'arrested' or 'kidnapped' in that January 11 raid on Iranian Diplomatic Mission Abril have now been released, alongside seven other Iranians who were being held in U.S. custody.

From an article in the NYT:

Two of the freed men were among five Iranians arrested in January in a raid on an Iranian office in the northern city of Erbil, an act that further strained relations between the United States and Iran. At the time the military accused the five Iranians of working with Shiite extremist groups, and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice later said that President Bush had authorized that raid and others because the military believed that sophisticated bombs were flowing into Iraq from Iran.

The Iranian Ambassador to Iraq, Hassan Kazemi Qumi, is quoted in the same article as saying that there are still another 25 Iranians being held by the U.S. in Iraq, while the American military is quoted as saying that the number is actually 11. It gives some assertions as to why, but admits that they haven't actually been charged with anything as of yet.

This article on the same subject from McClatchy speculates as to the reason why the Iranians were released:

-It came two days after the regional government in Kurdish Iraq engineered the release of eight Turkish soldiers who'd been captured last month by rebels from the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK in its Kurdish initials, a group that's on the State Department's list of terrorist organizations but has widespread support in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Kurdish regional officials have complained repeatedly over the past year that American forces were detaining Iranians who'd been in Iraq at their invitation.

-The International Committee of the Red Cross announced in Geneva that it had overseen the repatriation to Iran of an Iranian who'd been held for two months in northern Iraq by the anti-Iranian Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan, or PJAK.

PJAK, which Iranian authorities accuse of attacks in Iran, is closely affiliated with the PKK. The ICRC provided no details of how the Iranian had been captured or what led to his release.

-Iran inaugurated a new consulate in Irbil, the capital of the autonomous Kurdish regional government in northern Iraq. The United States has detained at least five Iranians in Irbil, including two of those now awaiting release.

Furthermore, as of today - November 15, 2007 - we now have this story coming out of Washington which states that the Iranians have now halted their shipments of Explosively Formed Projectiles - 'their deadliest weapons' - to Iraq:

WASHINGTON — Iran appears to have stopped shipping the deadliest type of weapons used against U.S. troops in Iraq after a European government confronted Tehran with proof that the weapons came from Iranian factories and Iraqi officials warned their neighbor that instability in Iraq affects the entire region, U.S., Western and Iraqi officials said.

A senior U.S. general in Iraq said Thursday that Iran is upholding informal commitments it's made in the last several months and no new weapons caches have been found recently. "We believe the commitments that the Iranians have made appear to be holding up," said Maj. Gen. James Simmons, a deputy corps commander in charge of studying explosive attacks, during a press briefing.

That's a striking departure from repeated U.S. condemnations of Iranian meddling in Iraq and from the argument by allies of Vice President Dick Cheney that there's little point in negotiating with Iran because its leaders can't be trusted to deal in good faith.

A Western diplomat with knowledge of the incident and two U.S. intelligence officials told McClatchy that the Iranians began curbing their support for anti-American forces in Iraq and Afghanistan after they were caught supplying explosively formed penetrators, or EFPs, to the Taliban in Afghanistan. Similar weapons have turned up in southern Iraq, the Western diplomat said.

A European government delivered a demarche, a diplomatic protest, to Tehran several weeks ago after truckloads of Iranian weapons were intercepted entering Afghanistan on at least four occasions, the Western diplomat and the U.S. intelligence officials said.

When Iranian officials denied any involvement, European diplomats showed them photographs of markings on the weapons that identified the Iranian factories where they were produced, they said. The photographs "had a major impact," said the Western diplomat.

The Western diplomat and the U.S. intelligence officials requested anonymity because they weren't authorized to speak publicly. For the same reason, they declined to identify the European government that delivered the protest.

Any reader who took the time to my last post on this subject will note that I was deeply skeptical of the American claim of Iranian interference in Iraq and Iranian involvement in attacks on U.S. troops given the paucity of the evidence and the overall mendaciousness of the Bush Administration when it comes to its public declarations of foreign subterfuge. I took the time to find out what I could, but I was still only working from second-hand sources on the Internet, in a land far, far away. There is every possibility, as this story would seem to suggest, that I was wrong, (sort of), and that the Iranians were involved in something.

I still maintain, as I said in that post, that even if it is actually going on it is still just a part of a larger actual conflict that is presently taking place between the United States and Iran - a conflict which could easily escalate - given these sorts of attacks and activities - into the grand regional war that everyone fears. It certainly something that I fear: A war which will have grave consequences, and war that it seems to me is completely unnecessary unless it is part of your agenda to provoke just such a war in the first place.

And I do find it astonishing just how surreptitious all of this is, given what's at stake. All the references to anonymous sources. All the claims and counter claims. All the different numbers. There still remains very little in terms of publicly verifiable evidence, and most of it seems to come second hand from the U.S. military. No journalist that I am of aware of has confirmed any of this. It remains this nefarious business of far away assertions. And yet, if the region and the conflict should descend into war over this - what did any of us actually know about it?

Perhaps now - given the other big announcement today - this great looming showdown between the U.S. and Iran will now return to being described, and being about the fledgling Iranian nuclear program.

For as the above article in The Guardian states:

Iran has installed 3,000 centrifuges for enriching uranium - enough to begin industrial-scale production of nuclear fuel and build a warhead within a year, the UN's nuclear watchdog reported last night.

The report by Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), will intensify US and European pressure for tighter sanctions and increase speculation of a potential military conflict.

The installation of 3,000 fully-functioning centrifuges at Iran's enrichment plant at Natanz is a "red line" drawn by the US across which Washington had said it would not let Iran pass. When spinning at full speed they are capable of producing sufficient weapons-grade uranium (enriched to over 90% purity) for a nuclear weapon within a year.

FURTHERMORE:

The always excellent PBS program FRONTLINE aired another excellent documentary about all of this a few weeks ago entitled Showdown with Iran. Its worth watching.


November 06, 2007

'Pakistan First'

General Pervez Musharraf declares Martial Law in Pakistan- or Emergency-Plus as he is calling it - and luckily for us Barnett Rubin just happened to be on the ground in Islamabad and has been live blogging on the situation for the last couple of days over at the Informed Comment Global Affairs Blog

In this his last post, before "leaving in a few hours", he had this to say:

Let me describe the situation on the ground to which Musharraf has responded by suspending the constitution, arresting several senior judges, and detaining hundreds of non-violent democratic political leaders. According to sources in the Northwest Frontier Province, the Taliban (Afghan and Pakistani) have established an Islamic Emirate centered in Mirali, North Waziristan, the home base of Commander Jalaluddin Haqqani (Afghan Jadran from Khost) and his son Sirajuddin. This Emirate acknowledges Mullah Muhammad Umar as Amir, but it is mainly run by the Haqqanis, with the Pakistani Mehsud leader, Baitulah Mehsud of South Waziristan, as its main public face. The Emirate has established structures in all seven Tribal Agencies, though it is strongest in North and South Waziristan and has not penetrated the Shi'a areas of upper Kurram. Besides Pakistani and Afghan Pashtuns, its forces include the Uzbeks displaced from South Waziristan and others from the former USSR (collectively if not accurately called "Chechens"), whom the local people accuse of the greatest brutalities, such as the beheading of prisoners.

From these bases, the Emirate has launched its offensive in Swat and has infiltrated around Peshawar from several directions. Recently Taliban appeared in Qisakhani Bazaar in the old city of Peshawar and ordered traders to remove "un-Islamic" posters. There was no reaction from the police or administration. There are dozens of Taliban FM stations broadcasting calls to jihad in both the tribal agencies and the "settled" (administered) areas of NWFP. Not one of them has been shut down; instead the martial law regime has blocked transmissions of liberal cable television stations and blocked the Blackberry network used by the political elite.

Many if not most of my Pakistani interlocutors do not believe that the Pakistani military is using either martial law or U.S. assistance for "counter-terrorism." They believe it is using it to perpetuate its own power in the service of a national security project that serves neither Pakistan nor Afghanistan and is doing great harm to both. Any civilian government would, for the first time in Pakistan's history, assert its authority over formerly prohibited areas of policy: Afghanistan, Kashmir, the frontier agencies, perhaps even military expenditure. Therefore the generals fear, and international security interests demand, a rapid transition to civilian democratic rule.

As I understand them, the most urgent requests to foreign governments and organizations put forward by the Pakistani supporters of democracy whom I have met are: (1) Clear and strong condemnation of the state of emergency, which is only a thinly disguised form of martial law; (2) Termination of assistance, especially assistance going directly to the Pakistani military, until the constitution is restored and the democratic transition back on schedule; and (3) Use for the same purpose of all levers of U.S. and international influence, including suspension of ongoing military contracts.

My Pakistani interlocutors do not seem to fear the destabilizing effect of such measures nearly as much as they fear the destabilizing effect of a martial law regime. Unlike past martial law regimes, this one enjoys little popular support (though I met a few elite women who believe that only Musharraf will defend their rights effectively). Musharraf's rhetoric about fighting terrorism they largely see as an unconvincing and transparent disguise for maintaining his personal power and the dominant position of the army at the expense of the rule of law.

He links to this Washington Post column by the great Pakistani journalist Ahmed Rashid:

Musharraf's chief aim was to "cleanse" the Supreme Court. Its judges have been forced to resign, and several, including Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry, have been arrested. The court, which had become a major irritant for the regime, had been due to rule on whether Musharraf could remain president for another five-year term.

The other prime targets were not the extremists terrorizing major swaths of northern Pakistan but the country's democratic, secular elite. Dozens of judges, lawyers and human rights workers have been arrested. Others have gone into hiding. Asma Jahangir, Pakistan's leading human rights activist, is under house arrest. She appealed yesterday for the Bush administration "to stop all support of the unstable dictator as his lust for power is bringing the country close to a worse form of civil strife."

Musharraf has increasingly treated the Supreme Court with contempt -- with devastating implications for relations between the army and the public, which wants an independent judiciary, the rule of law and respect for the constitution. Musharraf has again decided that he is above the law and international obligations, even though his political support collapsed long ago. Lawyers, middle-class professionals and his political opposition have been protesting in the streets for months, demanding that Musharraf hold elections and return the country to civilian rule.

Eventually the United States persuaded him to allow former prime minister Benazir Bhutto to return from exile in the hope that Musharraf and Bhutto together could fight extremists by restoring democracy. But Musharraf's heart was never in such a deal. The massive public turnout for Bhutto when she returned last month convinced Musharraf and the army of the need to avoid a handshake with Bhutto if they wanted to remain in power.
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Bhutto, her credibility in tatters, has been forced to do an about-face and condemn the generals. It seems that Musharraf once again took the Americans for a ride.

The government should focus its battle against extremism on northern Pakistan, where a resurgent Pakistani Taliban helped by al-Qaeda, Afghan members of the Taliban and several foreign terrorist groups are conquering territory and expanding the boundaries of their "liberated" sharia state. The army has lost hundreds of soldiers in a wave of frontal and suicide attacks, and at least 400 troops are being held hostage.

I italicized that last paragraph in order to highlight this apparent dichotomy presently taking place in Pakistan whereby there does in fact seem to be a deteriorating security situation in the North of the country, in the North West Frontier Province, in the tribal areas and in Waziristan that has come coupled with this consolidation of Taliban power that both Rubin and Rashid write about. But HOW does Musharaff responds to this? By declaring Emergency Plus and seeking to crush all opposition by proceeding to deliberately target, arrest and imprison centers of civillian opposition to his rule such as in the middle class intelligencia and legal professions. Locking up, apparently, thousands.

But get ready for Friday, when "the leader of the biggest oppostion political party, Benazir Bhutto has pledged to lead a major protest rally on Friday in Rawalpindi, the garrison city adjacent to Islamabad, the capital.

In his speech Musharaff talked at length about the "demoralization of law enforcement":

They have given up hope. Why? Because their officers are being punished - same trips to the Supreme Court. Ten officers - including two Inspector Generals - are suspended or convicted. And so, we have a demoralized force with low morale, afraid to take any action. They don't want to do anything except sit with their arms crossed.

as well as the "semi-paralysis of the government" which he blames on the courts:

How is the government functioning? In my view, it is in semi-paralysis, stricken. All of the senior representatives of the government are constantly going to the courts - especially to the Supreme Court. They are being giving sentences. They are being shamed publicly in the courts. Hence, they don't want to take any more decisions. At least 100 suo moto cases are currently running in the Supreme Court. And I am being told that thousands of applications are pending. And all of these suo moto cases are concerning the executive branch of the government. Functioning of the government is paralyzed at the moment.

Both quotes, I think, are indications that (as many have noted) that what he is really attempting to do here is preserve his power and that of his allies in the executive branch as well as the power of the military, which is close to overwhelming in Pakistan.

It is fascinating however that he has invoked "these two threats of Judicial activism and terrorism" as his reasons for martial law as both are the primary obsessions of the American Right. (See Scott Horton on "Bush's War on the Rule of Law'). Musharaff even references Lincoln in his speech.

Could such blatant Republicanism be a direct appeal? A further courting of American - (i.e. Bush's) - favour and understanding? They, after all, are Pakistan's most important ally, and hold the fate of its army in their hands - as both this article, and this article point out:

The United States and Pakistan are bound together in a multibillion-dollar relationship aimed at buying Washington an ally against terrorism and providing the Asian nation with benefits ranging from military equipment to child health programs.

U.S. assistance and other payments to Pakistan have totaled $9.6 billion in the six budget years since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States, according to the State Department.

The largest payout each year is for what the Bush administration calls "reimbursements" for Pakistan's help in the global war on terrorism. Under that program, Pakistan submits claims — such as its costs for providing observations posts along the Afghan border or its costs for taking part in joint operations with the U.S. against al-Qaida.

The reimbursements amount to some $80 million a month, said Defense Department spokesman Bryan Whitman — or nearly $1 billion a year.

That's a lot of leverage, and puts Bush in a very tricky situation.

Stay tuned.